Making Decisions: Take This Principle to the Bank
When executives take too long to make important business decisions related to hiring, promoting, or terminating employees, I commonly hear them lament, “I should have done this a long time ago!” This sentiment is especially true when executives deliberate awhile when dealing with employees who have been underperforming or behaving poorly, in spite of the manager’s best efforts to help them change. After mangers decide to let an employee go, it is rarely the case that they look back and think the employee should have been given “one more chance.”
Whether a manager is bringing someone on board or letting them go, there is often regret that the decision was not made sooner. The experience of both relief and regret occurs when executive business decisions are finally made after exhaustive analysis and lengthy deliberation. In both instances, colleagues and employees who have seen executives finally take action say (or think), “It’s about time,” or “What took them so long?”
Why do executives seem to take so long to make decisions that often seem obvious to others? They are overlooking the most basic psychological principle that defines human behavior: The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. People are creatures of habit. The behaviors we demonstrate on a regular basis often originated in childhood and therefore are deeply ingrained in our identity and psyche. As a result, we are typically very predictable, particularly in the interpersonal world of work. Deeply ingrained patterns of behavior are what leaders fail to recognize when working with those closest to them. Such leaders’ relationship with, or investment in, the person or issue distorts their judgment and prevents them from taking action on a decision that seems obvious to everyone else.
In Blink, Malcolm Gladwell discusses another psychological principle called “thin-slicing.” Thin-slicing is the ability to make decisions and inferences based on only scant, but salient, information. This thin-slicing is really pattern recognition, which allows people to see patterns or regularities in data. Results from experiments have determined that judgments made on the basis of thin-slicing can be as accurate, or even more accurate, than those based on more in-depth information. This phenomenon can be explained by the fact that we have an internal history of similar situations or interactions to draw on when making quick judgments. Although these judgments may seem almost instantaneous, they are related to our past experiences. When executives “drag their feet” to make personnel decisions, it is often because they are allowing subsequent information about a person or situation to interfere with their ability to use their instincts or pattern recognition to come to a decision. In other words, they doubt themselves and their skills of perception.
Of course, other psychological issues can interfere with a manager’s ability to “pull the trigger” on either hiring or terminating employees, or making difficult decisions about the business. At all levels, managers tend to procrastinate when making difficult decisions or holding people accountable. Whether this stems from such managers being perfectionists, averse to risk, or cowardly, or from a desire to please others and be liked, the end result is always the same: Once a difficult decision has been made, they nearly always feel a sense of relief about having made the decision and an accompanying sense of regret that they did not make the decision sooner.
By adding thin-slicing to our management arsenal, we can become much more effective and timely decision-makers. Thin-slicing enables us to trust our instincts and recognize that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. The less internal data we use, the more likely we are to rationalize our indecisiveness; and the longer we wait to make difficult decisions, the less likely we are to trust our own judgment. By recognizing that our internal observations, intuitions, and emotions are important considerations, we can make decisions more quickly and with greater confidence than when we ignore them.
In summary, when faced with making a difficult business or personnel decision, remember to:
- Recognize the wisdom of your first impressions about the person or situation.
- Keep in mind that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.
- Make decisions, or have difficult conversations, sooner rather than later.
As more companies and employees work at a rapid pace and with an increasing sense of urgency, it is more important than ever to match the pace of your decision-making to the pace of your company. Is there a decision you have been delaying or rationalizing? You probably know exactly what to do. Go for it!
